Durban recorded the lowest official unemployment rate of the major metros and outperformed the national average, according to Stats SA’s 2023Q4 QLFS publication. The unemployment rate decreased 0.4percentage points, from 22.5% in 2023Q3 to 22.1% in 2023Q4. Despite this decline, the actual number of unemployed individuals in the city increased by4,000, reaching 359,000, making Durban the second lowest in unemployed individuals after Johannesburg.
The decrease in the unemployment rate is as a result of the notable increase in the number of employed individuals, which rose by 44,000 from 1,220 000 to 1,263 000 in 2023Q4, surpassing all other metros. Durban also recorded the highest absorption rate, of 1.5%, improving from 46.1% to 47.6% in 2023Q4, compared to other metros and the national average.
In 2023Q4, the labour force in Durban continued to expand, with an increase of 48,000 individuals and the participation rate increasing from 59.6% to 61.1%.
The number of discouraged work-seekers decreased by25,000 in Durban, which mirrors a similar trend across major metros and suggests a positive shift toward individuals actively seeking employment.
Furthermore, the data indicates a decline of 38,000in individuals not economically active, signalling efforts by more individuals to participate in the labour force.
Looking at the year-on-year changes from the fourth quarter of 2022 (2022Q4) to the fourth quarter of 2023 (2023Q4), the labour force experienced significant growth, the highest among all metros, increasing by 3.9%, equivalent to 129,000 individuals, indicating a consistent upward trend over the years.
Year-on-year, discouraged work-seekers decreased by87,000, and not economically active individuals decreased by 50,000, indicating a shift towards active job-seeking behaviour rather than giving up.
However, employment rose modestly, with an increase of 33,000 jobs over the same period. This was slower than the quarter-on-quarter increase of 44,000.
Of concern is the substantial rise in the number of unemployed individuals, increasing by 97,000 year-on-year. This reflects difficulties in retaining previously created jobs or generating sustainable employment. Consequently, there was a notable increase in the unemployment rate, from 17.6% in 2022Q4 to 22.1% in 2023Q4, indicating deteriorating job market conditions over the year.
Despite overall growth in the labour force and employment, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, employment creation is not keeping pace with labour force growth, leading to a higher number of unemployed individuals. The worsening unemployment rate year-on-year signifies challenges in absorbing new entrants into the job market.
In Durban, the labour market witnessed notable fluctuations quarter-on-quarter, with six out of ten industries recording increases in employment. Overall employment increased by 44,000 compared to the previous quarter. Specifically, the transport sector saw a notable rise of47,300 jobs, followed by finance with 15,600 jobs, private households with5,500 jobs, manufacturing with 3,200 jobs, other with 1,900 jobs, and electricity with 1,200 jobs. Despite these gains, it's essential to recognize the challenges faced by certain sectors. Trade experienced a decrease of 13,900jobs, construction 8,600, while community services and agriculture saw reductions of 4,700 and 3,600 jobs respectively.
Durban’s latest labour market data reveals both positive and negative trends. Despite maintaining the lowest official unemployment rate among major metros, there was a slight increase in the number of unemployed individuals. However, the city experienced a notable rise in employed individuals and an improved job placement rate.
Additionally, there was a decrease in discouraged work-seekers and inactive individuals, indicating a positive shift towards active job-seeking behaviour. Nevertheless, the year-on-year increase in unemployment highlights ongoing difficulties in job creation and retention.
While some industries saw employment growth, others faced declines, underscoring the need for targeted interventions. Despite these fluctuations, Durban’s labour market demonstrates resilience and potential for improvement.
Statistics South Africa. (2024). Quarterly labour force survey. (Online)https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/P02114thQuarter2023.pdf
