UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(DURBAN)
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22.0%
(Q1 2024)
GDP GROWTH RATE
(DURBAN)
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0.1%
(Q4 2023)
PROPERTY VALUE
(DURBAN)
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R582.7
BN
(2022)
Aerial photo of Durban harbour mouth taken from the bluff
The confidence in Durban's business atmosphere remains relatively unchanged in Quarter 1 of 2024 compared to Quarter 4 of 2023. Durban’s Business Confidence Index(BCI) marginally increased by 0.3 index points from 38.12 in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 38.42 in the first quarter of 2024 (see Figure 1). By contrast, business confidence in Durban remains slightly above the national business confidence, which registered a decline in the first quarter of 2024.The national index dropped for the second consecutive quarter in the first quarter of 2024 from 33 in Quarter 3 of 2023 to 31 in the following quarter and 30 in the first quarter of 2024. The persistently low confidence at both the national and Durban levels is concerning. While the national and Durban's figures differ, they both indicate that at least 6 out of 10 people surveyed had no confidence in the economy. The low index at both national and Durban City levels is not surprising, especially because of the upcoming elections scheduled for 29 May 2024. Elections are typically associated with policy and economic uncertainty. Thus, investors tend to be sceptical about the economy until certainty is re-established. The reported overall index, however, masks significant heterogeneities across the sectors of the economy. Community, social, and personal services experienced a sizable increase in confidence from 26.52 index points in Quarter 4 of 2023 to 35.05 points in the first quarter of 2024. This represents an increase of 8.5 index points quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). While the sector’s index rose by 32% Q-o-Q, it declined by 24.6% Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y).The manufacturing sector also recorded an increase in confidence, rising from 33.08 in Quarter 4 of 2023 to 39.83 index points in the first quarter of 2024 (i.e., a 6.03 index points increase). This represents a 20% increase in Q-o-Q confidence, demonstrating the resilience of the sector in the City of Durban. Furthermore, the manufacturing sector recorded a 29% Y-o-Y improvement in the sector’s business confidence. These improvements may be attributed to positive strides in electricity supply, which has long troubled the country’s economic prospects. The stabilization of interest rates, with a strong likelihood for a decrease towards the end of the year, along with the relatively stronger rand, could also explain the improved confidence in the manufacturing sector. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and personal and household goods, catering, and accommodation significantly contributed to the improved confidence in Durban. This sector experienced a 12.34 index point increase in the first quarter of 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the sector's confidence was at 27.7 points and rose to 40.4 in the first quarter of 2024. This increase can be attributed to a slight decrease in prices combined with the stabilization of interest rates. However, downside risks persist in this sector due to escalating energy prices, which could drive inflation up and consequently necessitate an interest rate hike. The electricity sector also recorded significant improvements, with confidence recorded at 39.83 in the first quarter of 2024. This improvement is reflected in the sector’s Y-o-Y growth in confidence of 22%. This demonstrates confidence in the measures, among other things, to fix the country’s electricity supply shortages. The improvements in this sector could be a contributing factor to the confidence gains by other sectors as well.‍
April 2024
DURBAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX 2024Q1
Accordingto Statistics South Africa (2023 Q2) Gross Domestic Product publication; in the second quarter of 2023 (2023Q2), South Africa's GDP grew modestly to 0.6% (R4, 63 trillion), improving slightly from 0.4% (R4, 61 trillion)expansion in the first quarter of 2023 (2023Q1). Manufacturing was a standout, growing 2.2% and contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP. Finance also saw gains, contributing 0.2 percentage points, and agriculture, mining, and personal services contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, respectively.The growth in the manufacturing sector was attributed to manufacturers gradually adjusting to periodic power outages and an unexpected lift in June when the extent of blackouts was less severe than anticipated. Growth was also fueled by firms shifting towards off-grid and renewable solutions. This surge in off-grid renewable investment suggests a strategic pivot that could improve energy reliability and cost-efficiency - crucial factors for sustained economic growth. Structural issues have led to stagnant GDP growth over recent years and meaningful growth remains unlikely this year even though South Africa's economic performance has exceeded expectations for 2023Q2. According to the International Monetary Fund (2023); South Africa’sGDP has been revised from 0.1% to 0.9% in 2023. The escalation of power cuts to stage 6 in the final month of 2023Q2 further dampens prospects for significant economic improvement this year. The economy is not expanding rapidly enough to tackle the challenges of unemployment, poverty, and inequality. Additionally, despite a slowdown in inflation, the South African Reserve Bank (2023), is unlikely to reduce high-interest rates in its upcoming months. Therefore, high rates are expected to persist and add pressure on consumers.‍
November 2023
DURBAN'S 2023 Q2 GDP: RESILIENCE AMIDST SECTORAL SHIFTS
Izibalo zabantu abangasebenzi kuzwelonke zinciphezisuka ku 32.9% zaya ku 32.6% ngekota yesibili ka 2023. Amazinga abantu abangasebenzi kule kota aphansi kunawo wonke eminyakeni emibili. Lokhu kukhomba ukuthi kunemizamo ebonakalayo yokuvuselela izimakethe zemisebenzi, kugxilwekakhulu ezimbonini ezifana neyokwakha, ezohwebo, nemisebenzi yomphakathi. Lemikhakha ikhombise ukwenza kangcono emazingeni okudala amathuba emisebenzi. Nakuba lokhu kwehla kwabantu abangasebenzi sikushayela ihlombe, abantuabasebenzayo bande ngo-154 000 beya ku-16,346 million, okusengaphansi kwezibalo zangaphambi kokuhlasela kweCOVID ezazimi ku-16,383 million.EThekwini, ukuhluma komnotho kushaya ngolonwabu njengoba kwengezeke imisebenzi ewu-10,800 emisha ngeKota 2 ka 2023. Nakubakunjalo, izindleko zokuphila eziphezulu nokuba madolonzima kwamabhizinisi kusalokhu kuwumthwalo ekutheni umnotho wedolobha ukwazi ukudala amathuba emisebenzi. Ngokusho kweStatsSA 2023 Q2 Labour Force Survey, izibalo zabeswele imisebenzi zenyuke zisuka ku-19.4% zaya ku-20.7%. Lokhu kudalwe wukuthiokungenani kunabantu abawu-27,600 abamatasa nokubheka umsebenzi. Phakathi kuka-Ephreli noJuni 2023, iStatsSA ibike ukuthi kunokwehla kwesibalo sabantu asebedikibele ukufuna umsebenzi eThekwini.Ukwehla ngo-26,800 ngekota nango-67,000 unyaka nonyaka kwabantu asebedikibele ukufuna kukhomba izinguquko ezinhle njengoba kukhombisa ukuthi ababheka umsebenzi babuyelwe wukuzethemba. Nokho-ke, iningi kulabo asebedikibele ukufuna umsebenzi ngekota efanayo yangonyaka odlule lalandiswe wukuthi amabhizinisi amaningi ayevalile ngenxa yezikhukhula zango-Ephreli. Lokhu kukhomba ukuthi ukwehla kwezibalo zasebedikibele ukufuna umsebenzi konyaka nonyaka kungenzeka ukuthi kudalwa wukwelulama ngemuva kwezikhukhula. Nakuba kunjalo, isibalosasebedikibele ukufuna umsebenzi besilokhu sehla njalo kulawa makota amathathuedlule, okukhombisa uphawu olwethembisayo.
September 2023
UKUNCIPHA KUKA 19% KWESIBALO SABANGASAKUKHUTHALELE UKUFUNA UMSEBENZI KUVEZA IZIMPAWU ZETHEMBA EZIMAKETHE
Ngekota yokuqala ka 2023, umnotho wezwe ukhombise ukukhula okungatheni kuka-0.4%, kanti kube yimikhakha eyisishiyagalombili kweyishumi ebe negalelo kulokhu. Ngokushokwe-International Monetary Fund (IMF), ukukhula kwe GDP yase Ningizimu Afrika kulindeleke kwehle kusuka ku-2.6% ngo 2022, kuye ku-0.1% ngo 2023. Nakuba umnotho angakafinyeleli kwinzikamnotho, iNingizimu Afrika isadonsa kanzima emnothweni jikelele futhi kubukeka kulokhu kungathembisi.Impi eqhubekayo phakathi kwamazwe iRussia ne-Ukraine, kanjalo nonswinyo olubhekiwe embonini kawoyela eRussia kunomthelela ongemuhle emnothweni wase Ningizimu Afrika. Ukucishwa izikhawu kukagesi okuqhubekayo kuleli kusalokhu kuyiphazamisa imizamo yokukhulisa umnotho futhi kuvimbela ukuqhubeka kwemisebenzi yezomnotho. Ngokusho kombusi weBange-ngodla lase Ningizimu Afrika (SARB), ukucishwa izikhawukukagesi kulindeleke ukuthi kugawule amaphesenti amabili ekukhuleni komnothokulo nyaka.Ngaphezukwalezi zinselelo kunomthwalo wokukhula kwesikweletu sikahulumeni, ukukhulakwenzalo yemali nokukhula kwamanani empahla. Ukudayiswa kwempahla esetshenziswangokushesha yabathengi kukhombise ukukhula kwengenisomali ngo-13.4% umakuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, okulekelelwa kakhulu wukukhula kwamanani hhayinje ukwanda kokusetshenziswa kwempahla. Ngenxa yalokho, ukwelulama komnothokuza kancane futhi kukhomba ukungeneli ekuzinziseni isimo somnotho, okwenzakube nesithombe esingesihle ngamathuba okukhula komnotho wezwe.
August 2023
KUYAGQOZA, KODWA KUYETHEMBISA UKUKHULA KOMNOTHO ETHEKWINI
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