Executive Summary: July 2025 CPI Update
This report provides an analysis of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Statistics SA and its specific implications for the KwaZulu-Natal province and the eThekwini Metro.
National Inflation Rises: Annual consumer price inflation increased to 3.5 per cent in July 2025, up from 3.0 per cent in June, marking a 10-month high. While it remains within the South African Reserve Bank's target range, the uptick indicates growing cost pressures, particularly in food and transport.
KZN Inflation Outpaces the National Average: KwaZulu-Natal recorded the second-highest annual inflation rate among the provinces at 3.8 per cent. The primary driver was the Housing and Utilities category (+5.8 per cent), followed by essential Food inflation (+5.3 per cent), which disproportionately affects lower-income households.
Key Risks and Implications for eThekwini: As the nation's primary port city, eThekwini is particularly exposed. Rising logistics costs may amplify national inflationary pressures, while higher local living costs could influence wage negotiations and increase demand for municipal support services. This necessitates careful budget planning to accommodate higher input costs for service delivery and infrastructure projects.
This data highlights the heightened cost-of-living pressures on KZN households and underscores the need for proactive economic planning by local government and businesses.
Deputy Head: Dr Ajiv Maharaj
Approved and edited by: Dr. Sthembiso (Felix) Mthimkhulu
Contributors: Nohlakanipho Mnguni and Sthembiso (Felix) Mthimkhulu
Enquiries: Felix.Mthimkhulu@durban.gov.za
CPI Update and Implications for KwaZulu-Natal and eThekwini
Figure 1: Inflation remains within the SARB's target range
Stats SA has reported that annual consumer price inflation (CPI) rose to 3.5 per cent in July 2025, up from 3.0 per cent in June, marking a 10-month high. While inflation remains within the Reserve Bank’s 3 to 6 per cent target range, the uptick indicates rising cost pressures in the economy, particularly in food and transport categories.
For KwaZulu-Natal, where households allocate a larger share of income to basic goods and transport, the increase translates into reduced consumer purchasing power and heightened vulnerability for low-income groups. This may place additional pressure on provincial social support systems and affect local economic activity.
Figure 2: KwaZulu-Natal CPI Trends (2024–2025)
KwaZulu-Natal recorded the second-highest annual CPI at 3.8 per cent. The main driver was housing and utilities, which increased by 5.8 per cent, pushing up the overall inflation rate. Although housing is not a typical consumable, it is a recurring cost through rent, maintenance, and utilities that significantly affects household budgets, making its inclusion in the CPI both relevant and justified.
Figure 3: Food Inflation in KwaZulu-Natal, 2024–2025
Food is the second-largest contributor to annual CPI in KwaZulu-Natal, rising by 5.3 per cent year-on-year. As a necessity, food remains an inelastic expenditure, with demand persisting despite higher prices. Meat and vegetables were the main drivers: meat increased by 10.3 per cent and vegetables by 8.8 per cent, though meat inflation began easing by July 2024.
The earlier spike in meat prices was linked to the outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease, which reduced cattle supply. Winter conditions added further pressure, as poor grazing forced farmers to use costly feed, raising production and retail prices. These supply and seasonal factors highlight the vulnerability of food inflation to agricultural disruptions.
In eThekwini Metro, the implications are twofold. Firstly, as the country’s main port city, rising logistics and transport costs can amplify inflationary pressures on goods distributed nationally. Secondly, higher living costs may influence wage negotiations with organised labour and increase demand for municipal support services. Budget planning for service delivery and infrastructure projects may therefore need to accommodate higher input costs over the coming months.
