The Durban EDGE: Economic Data

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The confidence in Durban's business atmosphere remains relatively unchanged in Quarter 1 of 2024 compared to Quarter 4 of 2023. Durban’s Business Confidence Index(BCI) marginally increased by 0.3 index points from 38.12 in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 38.42 in the first quarter of 2024 (see Figure 1). By contrast, business confidence in Durban remains slightly above the national business confidence, which registered a decline in the first quarter of 2024.The national index dropped for the second consecutive quarter in the first quarter of 2024 from 33 in Quarter 3 of 2023 to 31 in the following quarter and 30 in the first quarter of 2024. The persistently low confidence at both the national and Durban levels is concerning. While the national and Durban's figures differ, they both indicate that at least 6 out of 10 people surveyed had no confidence in the economy. The low index at both national and Durban City levels is not surprising, especially because of the upcoming elections scheduled for 29 May 2024. Elections are typically associated with policy and economic uncertainty. Thus, investors tend to be sceptical about the economy until certainty is re-established. The reported overall index, however, masks significant heterogeneities across the sectors of the economy. Community, social, and personal services experienced a sizable increase in confidence from 26.52 index points in Quarter 4 of 2023 to 35.05 points in the first quarter of 2024. This represents an increase of 8.5 index points quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). While the sector’s index rose by 32% Q-o-Q, it declined by 24.6% Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y).The manufacturing sector also recorded an increase in confidence, rising from 33.08 in Quarter 4 of 2023 to 39.83 index points in the first quarter of 2024 (i.e., a 6.03 index points increase). This represents a 20% increase in Q-o-Q confidence, demonstrating the resilience of the sector in the City of Durban. Furthermore, the manufacturing sector recorded a 29% Y-o-Y improvement in the sector’s business confidence. These improvements may be attributed to positive strides in electricity supply, which has long troubled the country’s economic prospects. The stabilization of interest rates, with a strong likelihood for a decrease towards the end of the year, along with the relatively stronger rand, could also explain the improved confidence in the manufacturing sector. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and personal and household goods, catering, and accommodation significantly contributed to the improved confidence in Durban. This sector experienced a 12.34 index point increase in the first quarter of 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the sector's confidence was at 27.7 points and rose to 40.4 in the first quarter of 2024. This increase can be attributed to a slight decrease in prices combined with the stabilization of interest rates. However, downside risks persist in this sector due to escalating energy prices, which could drive inflation up and consequently necessitate an interest rate hike. The electricity sector also recorded significant improvements, with confidence recorded at 39.83 in the first quarter of 2024. This improvement is reflected in the sector’s Y-o-Y growth in confidence of 22%. This demonstrates confidence in the measures, among other things, to fix the country’s electricity supply shortages. The improvements in this sector could be a contributing factor to the confidence gains by other sectors as well.‍

DURBAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX 2024Q1

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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

(DURBAN)

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22.1%

(Q4 2023)

GDP GROWTH RATE

(DURBAN)

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0.1%

(Q4 2023)

PROPERTY VALUE

(DURBAN)

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R582.7

BN

(2022)

Aerial photo of Durban harbour mouth taken from the bluff

The confidence in Durban's business atmosphere remains relatively unchanged in Quarter 1 of 2024 compared to Quarter 4 of 2023. Durban’s Business Confidence Index(BCI) marginally increased by 0.3 index points from 38.12 in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 38.42 in the first quarter of 2024 (see Figure 1). By contrast, business confidence in Durban remains slightly above the national business confidence, which registered a decline in the first quarter of 2024.The national index dropped for the second consecutive quarter in the first quarter of 2024 from 33 in Quarter 3 of 2023 to 31 in the following quarter and 30 in the first quarter of 2024. The persistently low confidence at both the national and Durban levels is concerning. While the national and Durban's figures differ, they both indicate that at least 6 out of 10 people surveyed had no confidence in the economy. The low index at both national and Durban City levels is not surprising, especially because of the upcoming elections scheduled for 29 May 2024. Elections are typically associated with policy and economic uncertainty. Thus, investors tend to be sceptical about the economy until certainty is re-established. The reported overall index, however, masks significant heterogeneities across the sectors of the economy. Community, social, and personal services experienced a sizable increase in confidence from 26.52 index points in Quarter 4 of 2023 to 35.05 points in the first quarter of 2024. This represents an increase of 8.5 index points quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). While the sector’s index rose by 32% Q-o-Q, it declined by 24.6% Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y).The manufacturing sector also recorded an increase in confidence, rising from 33.08 in Quarter 4 of 2023 to 39.83 index points in the first quarter of 2024 (i.e., a 6.03 index points increase). This represents a 20% increase in Q-o-Q confidence, demonstrating the resilience of the sector in the City of Durban. Furthermore, the manufacturing sector recorded a 29% Y-o-Y improvement in the sector’s business confidence. These improvements may be attributed to positive strides in electricity supply, which has long troubled the country’s economic prospects. The stabilization of interest rates, with a strong likelihood for a decrease towards the end of the year, along with the relatively stronger rand, could also explain the improved confidence in the manufacturing sector. Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and personal and household goods, catering, and accommodation significantly contributed to the improved confidence in Durban. This sector experienced a 12.34 index point increase in the first quarter of 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the sector's confidence was at 27.7 points and rose to 40.4 in the first quarter of 2024. This increase can be attributed to a slight decrease in prices combined with the stabilization of interest rates. However, downside risks persist in this sector due to escalating energy prices, which could drive inflation up and consequently necessitate an interest rate hike. The electricity sector also recorded significant improvements, with confidence recorded at 39.83 in the first quarter of 2024. This improvement is reflected in the sector’s Y-o-Y growth in confidence of 22%. This demonstrates confidence in the measures, among other things, to fix the country’s electricity supply shortages. The improvements in this sector could be a contributing factor to the confidence gains by other sectors as well.‍

DURBAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX 2024Q1

The graph depicts South Africa’s (SA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP)growth from 2019 to 2023, both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. In the last quarter of 2023, the economy witnessed a modest quarter-on-quarter uptick in real GDP of 0.1%, recovering from a slight contraction of 0.2% in the previous quarter. Annually, growth for 2023 stands at a subdued 0.6%, a decline from the1.9% expansion recorded in 2022. This trend signals a relatively stable economy, which has returned to a path of growth albeit at a slow pace. The recovery trajectory is neither strong nor robust but instead gradual and incremental. The overall picture is one of tempered progress without significant ups or downs in economic output in 2023.In the last quarter of the 2023, GDP showed positive growth across six industries. Notable observed in three top sectors, namely: transport (2.9% increase, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth), community services (0.9%increase, contributing 0.1 percentage point), and finance (0.6% increase, contributing 0.1 percentage points). However, the trade sector experienced the largest contraction, decreasing by 2.9% and pulling down GDP growth by 0.3percentage points. It's important to note that despite the increase in the last quarter, overall annual growth remained subdued and lower than the previous year. Durban’s sector performance closely mirrors that of national sectors.

ECONOMIC HEADWINDS SLOW DURBAN’S RECOVERY

Building Plans Approved (BPA) figures have shown a staggering quarter-on-quarter increase of 253.6%, from 979 in Q1 23/24 to 3,462 in Q2 23/24, alongside the calendar (2022 and 2023) year-on-year changes increase of 28.3%. Nevertheless, quarter-on-quarter approvals are down a modest 0.8% in investment value, fromR1.55 billion to R1.53 billion, alongside the calendar (2022 and 2023)year-on-year downturn of -15%. Despite the rise in the number of building plan approvals in Q2 23/24, the calendar (2022 and 2023) year-on-year changes comparison reveals a decrease in both the number and value of the approved plans across most regions. This report will spotlight the performance metrics for the number and value of BPA during the second quarter of the city's 2023/24 fiscal year, providing a comparative analysis and data narrative.

ETHEKWINI- BUILDING PLAN APPROVALS UP IN Q2 23/24

Durban recorded the lowest official unemployment rate of the major metros and outperformed the national average, according to Stats SA’s 2023Q4 QLFS publication. The unemployment rate decreased 0.4percentage points, from 22.5% in 2023Q3 to 22.1% in 2023Q4. Despite this decline, the actual number of unemployed individuals in the city increased by4,000, reaching 359,000, making Durban the second lowest in unemployed individuals after Johannesburg. The decrease in the unemployment rate is as a result of the notable increase in the number of employed individuals, which rose by 44,000 from 1,220 000 to 1,263 000 in 2023Q4, surpassing all other metros. Durban also recorded the highest absorption rate, of 1.5%, improving from 46.1% to 47.6% in 2023Q4, compared to other metros and the national average. In 2023Q4, the labour force in Durban continued to expand, with an increase of 48,000 individuals and the participation rate increasing from 59.6% to 61.1%.The number of discouraged work-seekers decreased by25,000 in Durban, which mirrors a similar trend across major metros and suggests a positive shift toward individuals actively seeking employment. Furthermore, the data indicates a decline of 38,000in individuals not economically active, signalling efforts by more individuals to participate in the labour force.

DURBAN RECORDS THE LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 22.1%, LARGEST EMPLOYMENT OF 44 000 AMONG METROS IN LAST QUARTER OF 2023

According to the latest Stats SA GDP publication, South Africa’s GDP contracted to 0.2% (R4.62trillion) in the third quarter of 2023 (2023Q3), down from 0.5% (R4.63 trillion) in the second quarter of 2023 (2023Q2). This comes as GDP growth for 2023Q2 has been revised down from an estimate of 0.6% to 0.5% in2023Q3.The contraction in GDP for 2023Q3 was influenced by the agriculture sector, which contributed to the decline by -0.3 percentage points, followed by manufacturing (-0.1), and construction (-0.1). Mining and trade had a neutral impact on the overall GDP contraction. Despite this contraction, GDP increased in nominal terms for the three consecutive quarters. The 2023Q3 GDP is 0.4% above 2020Q1 GDP (before the onset of COVID-19 pandemic).This indicates a modest growth trajectory over the two-year period. However, if the country is to achieve sustained growth in the coming years, it will need to implement targeted interventions in sectors with growth potential while addressing obstacles hindering growth.‍

DURBAN RANKS SECOND IN GDP GROWTH DESPITE QUARTERLY CONTRACTION

In Q2 of the 2023/24 fiscal year, capital expenditure reached 20.7% of the allocated budget, with sanitation emerging as the leading contributor to growth. Notably, the sanitation department saw a significant 47.6% increase in capital expenditure, driven by projects such as alternative sanitation technology and sewer upgrades. Following closely, health & social services recorded a 26.9% growth, focusing on enhancing health infrastructure. Engineering department witnessed a 19.8% rise, primarily attributed to stormwater and road projects. Meanwhile, the transport authority and water department experienced growth rates of 18.7% and 11.5%, respectively, with a focus on corridor construction and water infrastructure enhancements. Collectively, these departments constitute the top 5 capital budget spenders, illustrating a diverse range of investment priorities aimed at bolstering critical infrastructure and service delivery.

SANITATION PROJECTS BOOST Q2 2023/24 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Durban serves as the economic hub of KZN and is the main cargo port in South Africa, providing critical services to the interior of Southern Africa and contributing to the country's trade and logistics. The population of Durban has grown from 3.4million in 2011 to 4.2 million in 2022. The rise in the working-age population(15-64) from 69.9% in 2011 to 72.2% in 2022 outstrips the province's 66.4%,signifying a potentially expanded labour force ready to participate in the economy. While this is a positive trend, it also implies that there is a need for job creation. The increase in population not only means a larger consumer base but also puts pressure on infrastructure, services, and job creation.

CENSUS 2022 INSIGHTS INTO DEMOGRAPHICS, ECONOMY, AND POTENTIAL

The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for the third quarter of 2023 (2023Q3) reveals notable trends in South Africa's labour market. The report indicates a decrease in both the official and expanded unemployment rates, dropping to 31.9% and 41.2% respectively from the second to the third quarter of 2023.South Africa’s employment grew by 399,000 in the quarter, reaching 16.7 million, surpassing the pre-COVID level of 16.4 million. This surge in employment for the quarter is attributed to a decrease in unemployment (72,000), in discouraged work seekers (26,000), and a reduction in the number of people not economically active (186,000).There has been a consistent increase in employment for nine consecutive quarters, also evidenced by a significant year-on-year rise of 979,000 in employment. Additionally, during the same period, there has been an increase in unemployed people (124,000), and a decrease in both discouraged (358,000) and those not economically active (539, 000). The continuous increase in employment highlights growing labour force participation, coupled with a robust recovery and expansion in the job market. Meanwhile, the quarter-on-quarter decrease in both discouraged work seekers and the number of people not economically active indicates a significant shift in labour force dynamics, largely driven by the recovery of the job market.

DURBAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES FOR FOUR CONSECUTIVE QUARTERS

Accordingto Statistics South Africa (2023 Q2) Gross Domestic Product publication; in the second quarter of 2023 (2023Q2), South Africa's GDP grew modestly to 0.6% (R4, 63 trillion), improving slightly from 0.4% (R4, 61 trillion)expansion in the first quarter of 2023 (2023Q1). Manufacturing was a standout, growing 2.2% and contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP. Finance also saw gains, contributing 0.2 percentage points, and agriculture, mining, and personal services contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, respectively.The growth in the manufacturing sector was attributed to manufacturers gradually adjusting to periodic power outages and an unexpected lift in June when the extent of blackouts was less severe than anticipated. Growth was also fueled by firms shifting towards off-grid and renewable solutions. This surge in off-grid renewable investment suggests a strategic pivot that could improve energy reliability and cost-efficiency - crucial factors for sustained economic growth. Structural issues have led to stagnant GDP growth over recent years and meaningful growth remains unlikely this year even though South Africa's economic performance has exceeded expectations for 2023Q2. According to the International Monetary Fund (2023); South Africa’sGDP has been revised from 0.1% to 0.9% in 2023. The escalation of power cuts to stage 6 in the final month of 2023Q2 further dampens prospects for significant economic improvement this year. The economy is not expanding rapidly enough to tackle the challenges of unemployment, poverty, and inequality. Additionally, despite a slowdown in inflation, the South African Reserve Bank (2023), is unlikely to reduce high-interest rates in its upcoming months. Therefore, high rates are expected to persist and add pressure on consumers.‍

DURBAN'S 2023 Q2 GDP: RESILIENCE AMIDST SECTORAL SHIFTS

The value of building plans approved experienced a significant decline over the last three quarters. The highest value was recorded in Q2 2022/23 at R6,5 billion, while the lowest was in Q1 2023/24 at R1,5 billion. The highest number of plans approved was in Q2 2022/23 with 1376, while the lowest was in Q3 2022/23 with 849 followed by Q1 2023/24 with 979. When comparing year-on-year data, the value of building plans increased by 21.4%, going from R11.3 billion in Q2 21/22 - Q1 22/23 to R13.7 billion in the cumulative period the aggregate of Q2 22/23 - Q1 23/24. In contrast, the year-on-year number of approved building plans decreased by 7.7%, falling from 4,685 to 4,322 in the same Q2 22/23 - Q1 23/24 period. This shift reflects a similar degree of instability in construction activity, emulating the volatility trend observed in the economic growth of the construction sector.

THE APPROVAL OF BUILDING PLANS DEMONSTRATES A DECREASE IN Q1 2023/24

The first quarter of the 2023/24 financial year began with a capital expenditure of R598.1, making up a mere 7.4% of the total yearly capital budget and constituting just 0.1% of the city's GDP. This initial low spending is in line with the recurring annual trend. Capital expenditures have historically been subdued in the first quarter due to lengthy approval procedures for the awarding of tenders. These administrative challenges often lead to lower expenditures at the onset of the fiscal year. However, as project approvals are granted, the capital spending typically accelerates, peaking in the fourth quarter of the year. It's worth highlighting that the City's capital budget for the 2023/24 fiscal year has seen a significant increase of 32.8%, rising from R6.1 billion to R8.1 billion. However, there needs to be a sustained increase in the capital budget over the medium term, while ensuring that the full budget is spent within the respective financial year. This will ensure that critical infrastructure assets are maintained and renewed within the City.

Q1 2023/24 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE DOMINATED BY HOUSING UNIT

Rentable office space data from the South African Property Owners Association (SAPOA) suggests that there is a greater demand for office space in uMhlanga than Durban Central CBD, despite the latter having more office space than uMhlanga (2012-2022). The most recent figures show that uMhlanga had 500,511 sqm of office space in 2022 available which is a huge increase from 273 068 sqm in 2012. Rentable office space in uMhlanga grew by 227,443 sqm and this represents an increase of 83%. On the contrary, Durban Central CBD grew from 738,185 sqm in 2012 to 782,309 sqm in 2022. This represents an increase of 44,124 sqm in extent and only a 6% increase. This clearly indicates that the demand for office space in uMhlanga is greater than for Durban Central CBD as the figures for uMhlanga have almost double dover 10 years.

IS DURBAN'S ECONOMIC HUB SHIFTING AWAY FROM ITS TRADITIONAL CENTRE?

Izibalo zabantu abangasebenzi kuzwelonke zinciphezisuka ku 32.9% zaya ku 32.6% ngekota yesibili ka 2023. Amazinga abantu abangasebenzi kule kota aphansi kunawo wonke eminyakeni emibili. Lokhu kukhomba ukuthi kunemizamo ebonakalayo yokuvuselela izimakethe zemisebenzi, kugxilwekakhulu ezimbonini ezifana neyokwakha, ezohwebo, nemisebenzi yomphakathi. Lemikhakha ikhombise ukwenza kangcono emazingeni okudala amathuba emisebenzi. Nakuba lokhu kwehla kwabantu abangasebenzi sikushayela ihlombe, abantuabasebenzayo bande ngo-154 000 beya ku-16,346 million, okusengaphansi kwezibalo zangaphambi kokuhlasela kweCOVID ezazimi ku-16,383 million.EThekwini, ukuhluma komnotho kushaya ngolonwabu njengoba kwengezeke imisebenzi ewu-10,800 emisha ngeKota 2 ka 2023. Nakubakunjalo, izindleko zokuphila eziphezulu nokuba madolonzima kwamabhizinisi kusalokhu kuwumthwalo ekutheni umnotho wedolobha ukwazi ukudala amathuba emisebenzi. Ngokusho kweStatsSA 2023 Q2 Labour Force Survey, izibalo zabeswele imisebenzi zenyuke zisuka ku-19.4% zaya ku-20.7%. Lokhu kudalwe wukuthiokungenani kunabantu abawu-27,600 abamatasa nokubheka umsebenzi. Phakathi kuka-Ephreli noJuni 2023, iStatsSA ibike ukuthi kunokwehla kwesibalo sabantu asebedikibele ukufuna umsebenzi eThekwini.Ukwehla ngo-26,800 ngekota nango-67,000 unyaka nonyaka kwabantu asebedikibele ukufuna kukhomba izinguquko ezinhle njengoba kukhombisa ukuthi ababheka umsebenzi babuyelwe wukuzethemba. Nokho-ke, iningi kulabo asebedikibele ukufuna umsebenzi ngekota efanayo yangonyaka odlule lalandiswe wukuthi amabhizinisi amaningi ayevalile ngenxa yezikhukhula zango-Ephreli. Lokhu kukhomba ukuthi ukwehla kwezibalo zasebedikibele ukufuna umsebenzi konyaka nonyaka kungenzeka ukuthi kudalwa wukwelulama ngemuva kwezikhukhula. Nakuba kunjalo, isibalosasebedikibele ukufuna umsebenzi besilokhu sehla njalo kulawa makota amathathuedlule, okukhombisa uphawu olwethembisayo.

UKUNCIPHA KUKA 19% KWESIBALO SABANGASAKUKHUTHALELE UKUFUNA UMSEBENZI KUVEZA IZIMPAWU ZETHEMBA EZIMAKETHE

National unemployment decreased from 32.9% to 32.6% in the second quarter of 2023. The unemployment rate for this quarter is the lowest it has been in two years. This suggests significant efforts to revive the job market, with particular focus on industries such as construction, trade, and community and social services. These sectors have notably experienced improvements in employment rates. While this decrease is positive, employed individuals only increased by 154,000 to 16,346 million, still below the pre-COVID levels of 16,383 million.

19% YEAR-ON-YEAR DECREASE IN DISCOURAGED JOB SEEKERS SIGNALS OPTIMISM IN JOB MARKET

Unemployment is a multifaceted and significant challenge in South Africa, not only impacting individuals and families, but also the overall progress of the country. Unfortunately, South Africa currently holds the highest unemployment rate globally. In the first quarter of 2023, the unemployment rate reached 32.9%,indicating a 0.2 percentage point increase compared to the previous quarter. Particularly concerning is the remarkably high youth unemployment rate of46.5%. Despite the collaborative efforts of the government, NGOs, and the private sector to tackle this issue through various upskilling, training, and job creation initiatives, the challenge persists.

NAVIGATING UNEMPLOYMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA'S LABOUR MARKET

In the 2022/23 financial year (July 2022 - June 2023), the number of building plans approved in Durban increased by 3.7%, totaling 4,748; compared to the previous count of 4,579 in 2021/22 (July 2021 - June 2022). However, there was a notable decline of 9.7% in the total value, dropping from R11.0 billion in the previous year to R10.0 billion. The quarter-on-quarter analysis depicts substantial growth of 31.9% in the number of approved building plans. The North region emerged as the primary contributor with 298 building plans, closely followed by the Outer West with 273, the Inner West with 229, the Central with 226, and the South with 104. The additions and alterations category accounted for the largest share of contributions at 66.5%, followed by residential at 31.8%, with commercial and industrial making up 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. Most approved industrial building plans in the last quarter (Q4) of the 2022/23 financial year originated from the North and Central regions.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BUILDING PLANS APPROVED

Ngekota yokuqala ka 2023, umnotho wezwe ukhombise ukukhula okungatheni kuka-0.4%, kanti kube yimikhakha eyisishiyagalombili kweyishumi ebe negalelo kulokhu. Ngokushokwe-International Monetary Fund (IMF), ukukhula kwe GDP yase Ningizimu Afrika kulindeleke kwehle kusuka ku-2.6% ngo 2022, kuye ku-0.1% ngo 2023. Nakuba umnotho angakafinyeleli kwinzikamnotho, iNingizimu Afrika isadonsa kanzima emnothweni jikelele futhi kubukeka kulokhu kungathembisi.Impi eqhubekayo phakathi kwamazwe iRussia ne-Ukraine, kanjalo nonswinyo olubhekiwe embonini kawoyela eRussia kunomthelela ongemuhle emnothweni wase Ningizimu Afrika. Ukucishwa izikhawu kukagesi okuqhubekayo kuleli kusalokhu kuyiphazamisa imizamo yokukhulisa umnotho futhi kuvimbela ukuqhubeka kwemisebenzi yezomnotho. Ngokusho kombusi weBange-ngodla lase Ningizimu Afrika (SARB), ukucishwa izikhawukukagesi kulindeleke ukuthi kugawule amaphesenti amabili ekukhuleni komnothokulo nyaka.Ngaphezukwalezi zinselelo kunomthwalo wokukhula kwesikweletu sikahulumeni, ukukhulakwenzalo yemali nokukhula kwamanani empahla. Ukudayiswa kwempahla esetshenziswangokushesha yabathengi kukhombise ukukhula kwengenisomali ngo-13.4% umakuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, okulekelelwa kakhulu wukukhula kwamanani hhayinje ukwanda kokusetshenziswa kwempahla. Ngenxa yalokho, ukwelulama komnothokuza kancane futhi kukhomba ukungeneli ekuzinziseni isimo somnotho, okwenzakube nesithombe esingesihle ngamathuba okukhula komnotho wezwe.

KUYAGQOZA, KODWA KUYETHEMBISA UKUKHULA KOMNOTHO ETHEKWINI

In the first quarter of 2023, the country's economy experienced modest growth of 0.4%,with eight out of ten sectors contributing to this growth. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), South Africa’s GDP is expected to decline from 2.6% in 2022, to 0.1% in 2023. Although the economy is not yet in a recession, South Africa’s overall economic performance is stagnant and remains grim.The ongoing geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and oil sanctions against Russia impact negatively on South Africa’s economy. The frequent rolling blackouts continue to hinder economic growth prospects and limits economic activity. According to the South African Reserve Bank’s governor, loadshedding alone is estimated to deduct 2 percentage points from economic growth this year. Adding to these challenges are the burdens of high public debt, a surge in interest rates, and price hikes. The sale of fast-moving consumer goods has seen a notable revenue increase of 13.4% compared to the previous year, driven primarily through price increases and not organic consumption growth. As a result, the recovery process is stalling, and proving inadequate in effectively stabilising the economy, leaving a sombre outlook for the nation's economic prospects.

SLUGGISH, BUT POSITIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DURBAN

EThekwini Municipality, known for its vibrant economy and diverse demographic tapestry, is on the brink of a new era in economic planning. This change is being driven by an innovative programme known as Spatial Economic Activity Data: South Africa (SEAD-SA), a government initiative that uses tax data to uncover the economic potential of South African cities. The SEAD-SA programme, initiated with the support of various national institutions including the National Treasury, Human Sciences Research Council and the South African Revenue Service (SARS), is a ground-breaking tool that is already reshaping the way cities think about their local economies. At its core, the programme is about leveraging local tax data to shed light on the city's economic performance. It focuses on formal sector data, suburb-level details, and place of work information to give a more granular view of the city's economy than national statistics can provide. This offers a unique opportunity to identify economic strengths and weaknesses at a local level, and to make data-driven decisions that can stimulate economic growth and enhance social equity.

A NEW ERA OF ECONOMIC PLANNING IN ETHEKWINI MUNICIPALITY

The StatsSA Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) publication reported the official unemployment rate in Durban as 19.4% in Q1 of 2023, a decrease of 9% year-on-year when compared with quarter one of 2022. Durban had the largest decline in the strict unemployment rate year-on-year compared with other major metros. The year-on-year decrease in unemployment was also because of the increase in discouraged work seekers (144 000), as well as an increase of 72 000 in the number of employed.

DURBAN MAKES STRIDES IN REDUCING STRICT UNEMPLOYMENT

The recent introduction of City Spatialised Economic Data by the National Treasury and SARS through the Cities Support Programme has been an incredible game changer for eThekwini Municipality. With the city having been negatively impacted by COVID-19, civil unrest and perennial flooding, economic recovery initiatives needed to be more spatially targeted to address economic growth in regions of the city that were affected more than others.

UNLOCKING DURBAN'S ECONOMIC POTENTIAL: THE POWER OF SPATIAL ECONOMIC DATA

In 2022, South Africa’s economy was marked with uncertainty, volatility and a series of global and local disruptions. Unsurprisingly, power outages continued to be the leading cause of poor economic performance. The country’s economy shrunk more than expected in the last quarter of 2022, declining by 1.3% following an increase of 1.8% in the previous quarter. Seven of all ten sectors contributed to this negative growth. According to StatsSA, the finance sector was the biggest contributor to the decline, with a significant 0.6% drop on the back of lower economic activity in financial intermediation activities. The trade sector was next with a decline of 0.3% due mainly to negative performance in wholesale trade.

SECTORS LAGGING PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS OF PRODUCTION

Imiphumela yoCwaningo Lwabasebenzi Lwamakota Onyaka (QLFS) lwabakwaStatsSA lukhomba ukuthi amazinga okwesweleka kwemisebenzi eThekwini ehle ngo-4.2% aya ku-17.6% ngo-Q4ka-2022, esuka ku-21.8% ngo-Q3 ka-2022. Lokhu kusho ukuthi bangu-22.6% abantu abebengaqashiwe ngo-2022, okungaphansana kwezibalo zika-2021 (22.8%).

AMAZINGA OKUSWELEKA KWEMISEBENZI EHLELE KU-17.6%

EThekwini Municipality has revised its 2022/23 capital budget, resulting in an increase from the initial R5.6 billion to R6.1 billion. This upward adjustment represents a 9% increase, largely driven by the need to repair infrastructure damaged by the recent floods. The Municipality has allocated a 48% increase in funding towards the reconstruction of water infrastructure, a significant boost from the original budget. Additionally, there has been a 35% increase in funding for health and social services, an 18% increase in sanitation, and an 8% increase in housing. These changes have been implemented to ensure that critical areas receive necessary repairs and upgrades, thereby improving the quality of life for eThekwini residents. The increased budget reflects the Municipality's commitment to sustainable and equitable development in the region, demonstrating its dedication to long-term growth and prosperity.

STATE OF THE 2022-23 CAPITAL BUDGET IN ETHEKWINI MUNICIPALITY

Abantu abagogode emfundweni yamabanga aphezulu basemathubeni amakhulu okuqashwa; njengoba bengu-69% abagogodile abasebenzayo, kanti cishe abangu-80% babalwa nabasebenzi; okungaba baqashiwe noma basafuna umsebenzi. Kulabo abangazange baphothule imfundo yamabanga aphakeme (abawu-1.36 million eThekwini), abawu-58% basemathubeni okungabalwa nabantu abasebenzayo okungaba yingenxa yokuthi sebedikibele ukubheka umsebenzi (8%), noma abakawubheki umsebenzi (nje ngabafundayo kwezinye izindawo, abahlala ekhaya begade izingane, abagulayo abangakwazi ukusebenza, njll; 50%).

IBALULEKE KANGAKANANI IMFUNDO UMA UFUNA UMSEBENZI ETHEKWINI?

Results released by StatsSA for the country’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey reveal that by Q4 of 2022 there were 310 000 discouraged work seekers in Durban, and 262 000 unemployed people actively looking for work. Apart from during strict lockdown, this is the first time in Durban there have been more of the former than the latter. For policy makers, this begs pertinent questions. Apart from obvious and prevailing market conditions, what factors contribute to unemployment, and discouragement amongst job seekers? What explains 73 000 job seekers completely giving upon actively seeking work, in the space of three months?

HOW IMPORTANT IS EDUCATION IN FINDING A JOB IN DURBAN?

The results of StatsSA’s Q4 Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) indicate that the unemployment rate in Durban has dropped by 4.2% to 17.6% in Q4 of 2022, from 21.8% in Q3 2022. This means that 22.6% of the labour force was unemployed in 2022 on average, slightly less than in 2021 (22.8%).

UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS TO 17.6%, AS PEOPLE LEAVE THE LABOUR MARKET

According to recent data, the average woman in Durban earns 82 cents for every 1 rand earned by a man. This disparity is seen in certain suburbs, such as Prospecton Industrial where women earn a median income of R23 348 compared to R30 472 for men. In Umkomaas and Umzinto the gap is even wider, with women earning R8 550 compared to R18 538 for men. This trend is seen in the majority of the City, but we have a few areas where there is the opposite trend and we see women median incomes higher than men. This is seen in Umlazi B, C, D where women earn a median income of R16 564compared to R12 898 for men.

SPLITTING THE BILL ON VALENTINE'S DAY?

In the spirit of giving, why not give back to Durban’s economy by spending Valentine’s Day at one of the City’s eateries, especially those in Broadway, Glen Hills or North Beach? Simply eating out at a restaurant in Durban helps sustain a job, and contributes to keeping a business afloat. This in turn sustains the rates revenue of the City, and ultimately assists the City to provide services back to residents of all income groups. A small act of love for Durban’s economy could help a small business get back on its feet, and sustain another job!

A DIFFERENT TAKE ON VALENTINE'S DAY IN DURBAN

What is the impact of infrastructure investment on total revenue collection? How should eThekwini be responding to its current infrastructure crisis? This report is designed to investigate the economic impact of eThekwini Municipality’s capital expenditure (infrastructure investment) on its total revenue collection. A time series econometric method; and in particular, the vector autoregressive (VAR) model of Sim (1980)** was employed for the analysis. The study used monthly time series data which covered the period 2015M1 to 2021M12. The study finds that as operational expenditure increases by 1%, the City’s revenue collection increases by 0.2% on average. This illustrates that the more eThekwini Municipality allocates its resources to activities such as internal system automation, improving competitiveness, and making it easier for businesses to operate, there is a direct, favorable impact on revenue collection.

ARE WE REALLY IMPROVING REVENUE BY INVESTING IN PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE?

Durban’s economy grew by 1,6% in the third quarter of 2022 after contracting by 0,8% in the second quarter. All industries in Durban except electricity and community services reported growth for the quarter. The third quarter expansion of Durban’s GDP comes despite the prolonged impacts from the floods during April 2022. The City was spared the burden of the rolling blackouts for part of the third quarter, to alleviate the impact of the floods. Durban’s GDP growth may also be attributed to the various interventions undertaken by the City so businesses could resume normal operations as soon as possible.

MORE THAN ANTICIPATED GDP GROWTH (1,6%) IN 2022Q3

Durban business leaders expressed a lack of confidence in the Durban business environment in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, there is a glimpse of hope in the 2022 fourth quarter relative to the third quarter. The index increased by 8.57 points from 35.47 in the third quarter of 2022 to 44.04 in the fourth quarter of 2022. The reported index, however, masks interesting dynamics across the sectors. Most sectors, except for electricity, agriculture, and construction, reported an increase in confidence. Unsurprisingly, confidence in the electricity, gas and water as well as the agricultural sectors were the key contributors towards the lack of confidence in Durban.

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES, BUT STILL LOW

The national unemployment rate declined from 34,5% in the first quarter to 33,9% in the second quarter and 32,9% in the third quarter of 2022. This quarter’s unemployment rate is the lowest level of unemployment rate in six quarters and this notable change in the unemployed suggests that efforts have been made thus far in reviving the job market.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPS WHILE “NOT ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE” RISE

The Durban EDGE in partnership with MILE held a learning event on the city’s spatialised economic tax data in October 2022. In his opening remarks; Dr. Ajiv Maharaj Deputy Head of the Economic Research, Strategy, and Innovation Department highlighted the importance of government and businesses understanding their customers in order to create a conducive environment for growth and job creation. He explained that South Africa has limited real economic data and that the real economy is in granular localities across the country.

DURBAN LAUNCHES SPATIALISED ECONOMIC DATA

The Durban Business Confidence Index (DBCI) was officially launched on Thursday the 20th of October. Durban became the first South African City to launch a business confidence index, and one of few cities to do the same globally. The project was jointly developed by the Durban Chamber of Commerce and Industry NPC, eThekwini Municipality, and the University of KwaZulu-Natal. The Durban Business Confidence Index measures the sentiment of business leaders in conducting their day-to-day business. It is a leading indicator that reflects the current economic situation, future direction of commerce, monitors output growth and presents a warning of economic activity turning points. The Durban BCI was constructed using survey data collected from the business community in eThekwini Municipal region. The index varies between 0 and 100, where an index of zero reflects extreme lack of confidence while an index of 100 shows extreme confidence and 50 indicates neutrality. To understand reasons behind the survey results, find the full datastory on this link (please upload as a datastory). This is where to cut it off on social media.

DURBAN: FIRST SA CITY TO LAUNCH A BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX

Durban's GDP is estimated to have decreased by 0,8% in 2022Q2. The City's GDP is 1,8% below its pre-pandemic level, which is in line with the City’s forecast initial results for the April 2022 KZN flood economic impact on Durban. While Durban's economy suffered a GDP loss of R3,6 billion this quarter (the biggest when compared to other cities), all major metros suffered a loss of -0,4% on average this quarter; probably due to load shedding and secondary effects of the April 2022 flooding.

DURBAN’S GDP DECREASED BY 0,8% IN 2022Q2, MAJOR METROS SHRUNK BY 0,4%

While SA’s major cities experienced sluggish growth during the Covid-19 pandemic and have since recovered, Durban’s growth remains subdued. Durban’s economy hadn’t recovered to pre-Covid GDP levels by 2022Q1 even though the City recorded relatively impressive growth of 2,3%. However, some investments stand to contribute to the City's growth and offset the impact of lingering negative shocks. This datastory addresses both negative and positive aspects of Durban's economy in 2022Q2 as the country's GDP results have been released.

DURBAN’S ECONOMY STILL GLOOMY BUT MAY SEE MODERATE GROWTH IN UPCOMING QUARTERS

The Economic Development Incentive Policy (EDIP) has been implemented since 2015 and offers new investors a discount on property rates. In the seven years of implementation, approximately R15 billion of investment was attracted to eThekwini Municipality. The discount provided to investors ranges from 10 to 100% off rates payable to the City based on a qualifying criterion.

DURBAN'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INCENTIVE POLICY BENEFICIARIES

According to StatsSA’s Q22022 labour force survey results, between April and June 2022, strict unemployment in the City dropped by 5,4% to 22,5% (from 28,4% the previous quarter). While this level of unemployment was typical of Durban before the onset of Covid, the drop in unemployment was far from a reason to celebrate.

DISCOURAGED JOB-SEEKERS INCREASE FOLLOWING APRIL 2022 FLOODING

Approved building plans can be used as a leading indicator for investment activity in any given economy. In 2021, R11,9 billion (in constant 2021 prices) worth of private sector investments were approved by the City (compared to R8,4 billion in 2020 and R11,2 in 2019), including commercial and domestic building investments, as well as both new investments and upgrades on existing buildings.

A RECOVERY IN BUILT INVESTMENT (2021)

The country’s GDP has reported positive economic growth for the first quarter of the year; and Durban has also reported above average growth.

DURBAN'S GDP GROWS BY 2,3% IN 2022Q1

This illustration gives a view of values of residential properties within suburbs using the latest valuation roll dataset. These are properties that existed since 2008. There are 191 000 residential properties with property values greater than R250 000 and less than R500 000. These residential properties have seen positive growths of 4,0% per annum on average inflation adjusted, between the period of 2008 and 2022. The suburbs that have seen growth include (Umlazi, Illovo, Waterloo, Mpumalanga, Inanda and Ntuzuma). These are single residentials properties in township areas.

LOW-VALUE PROPERTIES IN TOWNSHIPS SHOW POSITIVE GROWTH IN PROPERTY VALUES

According to the latest QLFS publication from StatsSA, the official unemployment rate increased from 27,7% to 28,4% between 2021Q4 and 2022Q1 in Durban. The participation rate increased by 11% in 2022Q1 when compared to same quarter last year. The number of discouraged persons decreased by -19% (40 000), indicating that more people were actively searching for work during this period. The number of employed persons also increased by 2% meaning 26 000 more people were employed in 2022Q1, just before April 2022 the floods.

EMPLOYED PEOPLE INCREASE BY 2% IN DURBAN, PRE-FLOODING (2021Q1 vs. 2022Q1)

This graph is a representation of building plans approved per region in March 2021 vs March 2022. There was an increase of 4,4% in the number of building plans approved during this period. The Outer West had the highest increase in the number of building plans approved; this is 27,6% of total plans approved followed by Inner west with 17,8 %.

THE WEST DRIVES BUILDING INVESTMENT GROWTH

eThekwini Municipality's Economic Development Unit is conducting a detailed Economic Activity and Outlook Survey on Durban businesses affected by the April 2022 flood. The results of the information collation will be used to understand the value of damages, type of damages sustained, and conduct an ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT which will be used to inform the response strategies of all partners.

INITIAL RESULTS-APRIL 2022 KZN FLOOD ECONOMIC IMPACT ON DURBAN

Durban’s economy poses many risks and opportunities; including a combination of both a boom in new industries and significant socio economic red flags.‍One opportunity includes a spike in the City’s services exports, particularly the Global Business Service (GBS) sector. This includes the spurt of call centres throughout the City, and in Umhlanga in particular. Related to this, a rapid growth in digital industries present opportunities with low barriers to entry for youth (e.g. deliveries for online shopping).

KEY OPPORTUNITIES & RISKS IN DURBAN’S ECONOMY

The Durban Edge held a webinar to launch an innovative series showing spatialised data to assist the Municipality’s decision-makers understand the structure of Durban’s formal economy and compare it with other metros.

ANONYMISED CITY SPATIALISED ECONOMIC DATA - INNOVATION SERIES

StatsSA's QLFS publication for 2021Q4 reports that South Africa’s official unemployment rate increased to 35,3%, the highest rate since the beginning of the QLFS survey. While there has been minor progress in economic growth, economic recovery in 2021 was sluggish and ultimately limited job opportunities. This is reflected in most local economies like Durban that are struggling to create employment at sufficient levels.

A JOBLESS LABOUR MARKET

According to StatsSA’s 2021Q4 GDP publication, national GDP grew by 1,2% in 2021Q4 following a decline of 1,7% in the previous quarter. Annual GDP grew slightly more than expected at 4,9% and this was in line with the forecasted increase of 4,8%. While this growth is an indication of recovery it must be noted that national GDP grew off a low base of (-6,4% in 2020).

MORE THAN EXPECTED GDP GROWTH IN 2021 (1,2%)

The office occupancy rate in Umhlanga has increased by 88% over the 10-year period between 2012-2021.‍Umhlanga has been a preferred office destination for some time because of its upmarket properties and amenities around the area. In square meters, occupancy in this commercial node also grew by 213 000 sqm from 242 699 sqm in just over a decade.

OFFICE OCCUPANCY EXPANDS BY 88% IN UMHLANGA OVER A DECADE

The July 2021 civil unrest has put a strain on a labour market that had begun to stabilise following the impact of the pandemic. It has further negatively impacted livelihoods and added to the existing problem of inequality, with some employees receiving reduced income while others have lost jobs completely. This datastory discusses the unemployment rate of eThekwini and how people have given up hope of finding work in 2021Q3 following the unrest. It also gives a brief overview of job loss in SA major metros, especially the ones affected by unrest. Furthermore, it discusses the impact of the unrest on both the formal and informal economies, assessing StatsSA's recent Q3 QLFS figures for Durban. It concludes with interventions and relief programmes offered by the Municipality to assist affected businesses.

LABOUR MARKET UNDER STRAIN FOLLOWING JULY CIVIL UNREST

While the country remains optimistic about recovering from the Covid-19 induced recession, South Africa’s economy continues to face challenges which have resulted in its contraction in 2021Q3. According to the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, National Treasury has since revised the country’s estimated growth of 5,1% for 2021 to 1.7% over the next 2 years. National GDP for 2021Q3 shrunk to -1,5% (unannualised) after four successive quarters of growth. This negative growth can be attributed to a number of factors. This data story discusses factors that contributed to GDP’s negative performance at both the provincial and local level.

EXPLORING REASONS BEHIND 2021Q3'S GDP DECLINE

This publication/ data story contains a quarterly analysis of the eThekwini Municipality’s capital expenditure performance and how that spending is allocated to services. It provides further analysis of the construction sector in relation to the City’s capital spending, as well as a high level impact assessment of eThekwini Municipality's capital expenditure on Durban's economy. The City's fiscal year ends in June, and the first quarter runs from July to September 2021.

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY IN 2021Q1

Despite repeated negative shocks to South Africa’s economy, some recent economic performance indicators have been surprisingly positive. StatsSA recently recorded a national growth rate of 1,2% in GDP between the months of April and June of 2021, and 1% between the months of January and March 2021. During this same time period, national business confidence rose to its highest level in 13 quarters (since 2018). While this positive performance was experienced before the July 2021 unrest; it is still important to understand the reasons behind this resilience in economic activity. This datastory explores the reasons for this positive economic performance.

WHAT IS DRIVING POST-LOCKDOWN GROWTH IN DURBAN?

In this opinion paper, Dr Ajiv Maharaj, Nick Poree and Prof Jeff McCarthy argue that disintegrated planning and narrow organisational drivers are subverting what's in the best interest of the country. They highlight that the national infrastructure plan does not provide sufficient priority or mega projects to address the challenges of road freight and if not addressed, will lead to the benefits of ACFTA bypassing SA. The paper calls for the greater prioritisation of investment into road freight between Durban and Gauteng and proposes an alternative to the N3, which will unlock industrialisation and growth. The Durban EDGE kicks off its Transformation Series of articles with a critical and hard look at the challenges at the Durban Port and inland freight transport.

DURBAN PORT AT THE CROSSROADS (PART 1)

At a strict rate of 34,4%; South Africa’s unemployment rate is the highest in the world. This is according to the World Bank, which in response to StatsSA’s Quarterly Labour Survey reports that the country’s unemployment is at its highest in 13 years. This datastory addresses this performance at the City level, as well as possible reasons for it.

SA UNEMPLOYMENT AT ITS HIGHEST IN HISTORY

Local governments globally have a critical role to play in responding to the Covid-19 crisis as they are at the coalface dealing with local communities. This datastory addresses eThekwini Municipalitys journey in responding the economic crisis, as well as lessons learnt from the process.

LOCAL GOVERNMENT’S ECONOMIC RESPONSE TO COVID-19: THE CASE OF ETHEKWINI CITY COUNCIL

The eThekwini Municipality has, together with the Durban Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) have condemned the indiscriminate destruction of the economy of the City and Province and the complete breakdown of the rule of law. The looting and destruction have undoubtedly damaged supply chains; leaving communities without food, medicine, fuel and livelihoods. The City is aware of the long-term negative impact of the current social unrest on the City's economy. The following are the preliminary, high level estimates of the impact of the unrest.

(1ST RESPONSE) ECONOMIC IMPACT OF JULY 2021 UNREST ON DURBAN'S ECONOMY

Over the next 10 to 15 years the Durban Inner City is set to experience an investment of approximately R62 billion. This will include a dramatic increase in residential stock while tourism, retail and civic land uses will also receive massive investment. This data story provides an overview of the Inner City's past, present and future growth potential by racapping development trends over the decades, and discussing strategic future investments planned.

POISED FOR GROWTH: RENEWAL OF DURBAN’S INNER CITY

In 2021Q1, the rehiring and returning of people to the workforce has slowed down significantly, indicating that the labour market is slowly stabilising. This data story looks at the unemployment rate of eThekwini pre Covid19 levels and how the labour market has adjusted overtime amid Covid19. It will further look at the geographical growth and decline of employment in the City, to assist with policy making with regards to supporting job growth.

A STABILISING LABOUR MARKET IN Q1 2021

Many emerging markets and developing economies continue to struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, the World Bank says in its June 2021 Global Economic Prospects. For South Africa however, first quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations. Stats SA reports that South Africa's first quarter GDP grew by 4.6% on an annualised basis. However, according to Stats SA data, the South African economy is 2.7% smaller than it was in the first quarter of 2020 despite this being the third consecutive quarter of positive growth. This is reflected in the performance of Durban’s GDP growth. This datastory reflects on the GDP performance of Durban in the first quarter of 2021.

GDP IN Q1 2021: POSITIVE GROWTH BUT SLOW RECOVERY

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Much discussion has gone into the impact of Covid-19 on unemployment, but other changes in dynamics on the labour market have been less explored. Of interest is the impact of Covid-19 and unemployment trends on the property market. This data story explores this aspect of the pandemic, and what this may mean for the City’s revenue.

The New Normal and Property Trends

The negative effect of Covid-19 lockdown on the livelihoods of the families throughout the City, has arguably been the biggest impact of the pandemic. The main channel for this is undeniably through the City's workforce; which is estimated to have shed 207 000 employed members; or 17% of its employed.

How Has COVID-19 Affected the Labour Market?

The City is aware of the impact of Covid-19 on Durban’s economy and has developed an Economic Recovery Plan as a response.The ERP was commended by both National Treasury and the World Bank, with the World Bank saying this about the plan: “The City (Durban) was able to … move quickly to understand the impact of the crisis and to design and implement rapid responses where needed most.” (The World Bank Group, 2020). The key questions is, "what has the impact of the ERP been on the City's economy?"

What Has Been the Impact of All COVID-19 Interventions on Durban’s Economy?

The economic crisis unleashed by the outbreak has left economies vulnerable. An assessment by Future Cities South Africa (FCSA, 2020) and eThekwini Municipality gives us an overview of the impact of the pandemic on Durban’s economy and expected recovery. It also indicates the GDP losses per month with interventions and second wave scenarios. This data story will also reveal the sectors mostly affected in terms of revenue and their contribution to Durban’s GDP. Lastly, it will show the impact of both Covid-19 interventions and the City’s Catalytic Projects (See FOOTNOTE 1) on Durban’s economy.

COVID-19 and Durban’s Growth Trajectory

Unemployment figures released by StatsSA in 2019 Q4 show unemployment rising at an average growth of 1% over the past 5 years. In order to guide our actions in tackling this issue, it is important to understand the profile of the working aged in cities, and then zoom further into Durban’s unique profile.

Unemployment in SA’s Major Cities (2020)

Durban's economy has contracted in quarter four. Due to a contraction in quarter three, Durban officially experienced a technical recession in the last half of 2019. The economy is expected to contract by 3,4% in 2020, due to the COVID 19 impact and the global economic lockdown.

From 2019 Q3 Durban’s Economy Has Been In Technical Recession

On the 15th March 2020, the President of South Africa declared a National State of Disaster, following the global and national Corona Virus outbreak. At the time, 61 people resident in South Africa had tested positive for the virus (now 150); with the President declaring it the most severe challenge the country been confronted with since the dawn of democracy. Reports on the impact of the virus on the global economy are inconclusive, however there are indications that the global economy is already in recession; although possibly worse than that experienced in the 2008 – 2009 Global Financial Recession (GFR). The worst forecasts for global growth by analysts are around 1% global growth in 2020.

COVID-19 AND DURBAN’S ECONOMY: Preliminary Impact Indications

It is no secret that Moody’s Credit Rating Agency will be keenly glued to South Africa’s 2020 Budget Speech scheduled for the 26th February, to determine whether or not to maintain the country’s investment grading. This SONA was arguably the country’s most important, because it set the tone for the upcoming Budget Speech. While 2020 SONA disruptions, debates, and announcements continue to dominate national news headlines, the City is cognisant that the President’s announcements will only be as effective as their implementation at the city level. Way after Moody’s decision, how the City takes up the President’s challenge of financial prudence, red tape reduction, investment facilitation and job creation will be crucial in determining the quality of life of millions.

THE 2020 SONA: And the TOP 8 Durban Issuess

Durban and national GDP growth declined on an annualised q-to-q rate, by 0.6%, in 2019 Q3. Other cities' GDP growth also declined, but by a lower percentage than Durban. This performance is an indicator of Durban's role on the coalface of the country's economy.

What Caused Durban's Negative Performance in 2019 Q3?

When taking into account discouraged work seekers, unemployment in Durban increased to its highest rate ever recorded. This is according to the latest unemployment figures released through StatsSA's Quarterly Labour Force Survey. This increased rate is no suprised given the state of the national and global economy. It is, nonetheless worth exploring this further, and in particular, looking at what peculiar challenges Durban faces in an attempt to address them.

Discouraged Work Seekers Increase Durban's Unemployment Rate in 2019 Q3

GDP data on EThekwini Municipality's performance has recently been released. As expected, Durban's economy has recovered from the negative slump experienced in the first quarter of 2019. This is good news for the City's economy, but should be sustained in order to produce significant positive impact.

Durban's Economy Recovers in the Second Quarter

StatsSA has recently released 2019 Q2 unemployment figures, which show alarming rates of unemployment last seen in 2003. In order to guide our actions in tackling this issue, it is important to understand the profile of the working aged in cities, and then zoom further into Durban’s unique profile.

Unemployment in SA’s Major Cities

The total gross value added (GVA) of Durban grew by R278 billion in 2018. This is a 0.5% increase from the 2017. In 2018, Durban experienced a technical recession, but had recovered by the close of the year. What were the various factors that led to this increase?

Economic Overview: State of the Durban Economy

There are numerous external and internal factors that have led to South Africa’s slow economic growth. The South African economy, much like global trends, has low growth projections for 2019 and 2020. However, unlike the global economy, expectations for growth are improving.

Economic Overview: State of the National Economy

How has the global economy fared and what are the future projections? The general trend in the global economy has been a decline, including lower global investment rates. Even emerging giants such as China, have experienced slower growth than in previous years.

Economic Overview: State of the Global Economy

What do trends in eThekwini’s Ports tell us about trade in the city? Economic activity through eThekwini’s ports shows overall positivity with a general and intermittent increase in invoices and throughput in 2018.

The official unemployment rate is a measure of the percentage of the labour force who are actively looking for employment. Whereas, the expanded unemployment rate includes those who have been discouraged from seeking employment.

Labour Market Overview

This data story provides data on the official unemployment rates for all metros in South Africa from 2007 to 2016. The official unemployment rate excludes discouraged workers from the number of people who are unemployed, resulting in a lower unemployment rate than if discouraged work seekers were included. Therefore, it is useful to also understand the percentage of discouraged work seekers of the unemployed population who are included in the expanded definition of unemployment. This data is included per metro for the second quarter of 2017 and for eThekwini between 2009 and 2017.

eThekwini Labour: Unemployment

This data story shows the sectoral contribution to eThekwini’s economic growth in 2016 and 2017, with a focus on the manufacturing sector. It shows how important each sector has been in determining the City’s positive or negative economic performance in the said years.

Key Sectors in eThekwini Growth

This data story shows how eThekwini’s GDP growth rate has performed in 2016 and 2017. Performance is measured against other metros for 2016 and 2017, and South Africa and global growth rate trends from 2012 to 2019. Furthermore, the growth rates and contribution of the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors in eThekwini are provided for 2016.

eThekwini: Growth Overview

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